Behaviour of the winter North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Abdel Hannachi  Elizabeth A. Barnes  Tim Woollings 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(3-4):995-1007

A systematic analysis of the winter North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream latitude and wind speed from 52 model integrations, taken from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 3, is carried out and compared to results obtained from the ERA-40 reanalyses. We consider here a control simulation, twentieth century simulation, and two time periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) from a twenty-first century, high-emission A2 forced simulation. The jet wind speed seasonality is found to be similar between the twentieth century simulations and the ERA-40 reanalyses and also between the control and forced simulations although nearly half of the models overestimate the amplitude of the seasonal cycle. A systematic equatorward bias of the models jet latitude seasonality, by up to 7°, is observed, and models additionally overestimate the seasonal cycle of jet latitude about the mean, with the majority of the models showing equatorward and poleward biases during the cold and warm seasons respectively. A main finding of this work is that no GCM under any forcing scenario considered here is able to simulate the trimodal behaviour of the observed jet latitude distribution. The models suffer from serious problems in the structure of jet variability, rather than just quantitiative errors in the statistical moments.  相似文献   

Can agriculture support climate change adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation and rural livelihoods? insights from Kenya     

Elizabeth Bryan  Claudia Ringler  Barrack Okoba  Jawoo Koo  Mario Herrero  Silvia Silvestri 《Climatic change》2013,118(2):151-165

Changes in the agriculture sector are essential to mitigate and adapt to climate change, meet growing food demands, and improve the livelihoods of poor smallholder producers. What agricultural strategies are needed to meet these challenges? To what extent are there synergies among these strategies? This paper examines these issues for smallholder producers in Kenya across several agroecological zones. Several practices emerge as triple wins, supporting climate adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation, and profitability goals. In particular, integrated soil fertility management and improved livestock feeding are shown to provide multiple benefits across all agroecological zones examined. Triple wins of other agricultural practices are limited to specific agroecological zones. Irrigation and soil and water conservation, for example, are essential for adaptation, mitigation, and profitability in arid areas. The results suggest that agricultural investments targeted toward these triple-win strategies will have the greatest payoff in terms of increased resilience of farm and pastoralist households and global climate change mitigation. To reap the benefits of triple-win strategies will require that policymakers, researchers, and practitioners move away from isolated approaches focused on either adaptation or mitigation or rural income generation toward a more holistic assessment of joint strategies as well as their tradeoffs and synergies.  相似文献   

Statistical modeling of extreme value behavior in North American tree-ring density series     

Elizabeth Mannshardt  Peter F. Craigmile  Martin P. Tingley 《Climatic change》2013,117(4):843-858

Many analyses of the paleoclimate record include conclusions about extremes, with a focus on the unprecedented nature of recent climate events. While the use of extreme value theory is becoming common in the analysis of the instrumental climate record, applications of this framework to the spatio-temporal analysis of paleoclimate records remain limited. This article develops a Bayesian hierarchical model to investigate spatially varying trends and dependencies in the parameters characterizing the distribution of extremes of a proxy data set, and applies it to the site-wise decadal maxima and minima of a gridded network of temperature sensitive tree ring density time series over northern North America. The statistical analysis reveals significant spatial associations in the temporal trends of the location parameters of the generalized extreme value distributions: maxima are increasing as a function of time, with stronger increases in the north and east of North America; minima are significantly increasing in the west, possibly decreasing in the east, and exhibit no changes in the center of the region. Results indicate that the distribution varies as a function of both space and time, with tree ring density maxima becoming more extreme as a function of time and minima having diverging temporal trends, by spatial location. Results of this proxy-only analysis are a first step towards directly reconstructing extremal climate behavior, as opposed to mean climate behavior, by linking extremes in the proxy record to extremes in the instrumental record.  相似文献   

Bulk organic δ13C and C/N ratios as palaeosalinity indicators within a Scottish isolation basin     

Elizabeth A. V. Mackie  Melanie J. Leng  Jeremy M. Lloyd  Carol Arrowsmith 《第四纪科学杂志》2005,20(4):303-312

Microfossils in isolation basin sediments are frequently used to reconstruct sea‐level change, but preservation problems and non‐analogue situations can limit their usefulness. Here we investigate the potential of stable carbon isotopes (δ¹³C) and C/N ratios from bulk organic matter, as an alternative proxy of salinity within isolation basin sediments from a basin in northwest Scotland. Within the Holocene sediment δ¹³C and C/N are determined largely by the mean weighted values of the predominant source of the organic material. Analysis of modern materials and comparison with the diatom record shows that the marine parts of the sequence are dominated by high δ¹³C and variable C/N. In the fresh water sequences the organic material is a mixture of both freshwater aquatic and terrestrial plant input that have relatively low δ¹³C and high C/N. The application of δ¹³C and C/N ratios in the studied basin in general follow the environmental change recorded by the diatoms and shows the potential of bulk organic matter in the investigation of salinity change in isolation basins. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Near-infrared properties of i-drop galaxies in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field     

Elizabeth R. Stanway  Richard G. McMahon  Andrew J. Bunker 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,359(3):1184-1192

We analyse near-infrared Hubble Space Telescope ( HST )/Near-Infrared Camera and Multi-Object Spectrometer F 110 W ( J ) and F 160 W ( H ) band photometry of a sample of 27 i '-drop candidate   z ≃ 6  galaxies in the central region of the HST /Advanced Camera for Surveys Ultra Deep Field . The infrared colours of the 20 objects not affected by near neighbours are consistent with a high-redshift interpretation. This suggests that the low-redshift contamination of this i '-drop sample is smaller than that observed at brighter magnitudes, where values of 10–40 per cent have been reported. The J – H colours are consistent with a slope flat in   f_ν ( f_λ ∝λ⁻²)  , as would be expected for an unreddened starburst. However, there is evidence for a marginally bluer spectral slope  ( f_λ ∝λ^−2.2)  , which is perhaps indicative of an extremely young starburst (∼10 Myr old) or a top heavy initial mass function and little dust. The low levels of contamination, median photometric redshift of   z ∼ 6.0  and blue spectral slope, inferred using the near-infrared data, support the validity of the assumptions in our earlier work in estimating the star formation rates, and that the majority of the i -drop candidates galaxies lie at   z ∼ 6  .  相似文献   

Spitzer imaging of i'-drop galaxies: old stars at z≈ 6     

Laurence P. Eyles  rew J. Bunker  Elizabeth R. Stanway  Mark Lacy  Richard S. Ellis  Michelle Doherty 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,364(2):443-454

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Galactosynthesis: halo histories, star formation and discs     

Ari Buchalter  Raul Jimenez  Marc Kamionkowski 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,322(1):43-66

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The arctic — in need of an international regime     

Elizabeth Young 《Marine Policy》1981,5(2):154-156

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Maritime policy and the coastal community — The impact of the law of the sea: edited by Douglas M. Johnston 338 pages, £9.95, 1976, Croom Helm,London, UK     

Elizabeth Young 《Marine Policy》1977,1(1):82-83

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VOCs in Ground Water Influenced by Large Scale Withdrawals   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alex J. Fischer  Elizabeth A. Rowan  Roy F. Spalding 《Ground water》1987,25(4):407-414

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